Full Duplex has partnered with Abacus Data to provide complementary analysis of the Ontario election. Abacus Data is conducting online surveys using more traditional polling methodologies. Full Duplex is conducting analysis of Ontario election activity using Sysomos Heartbeat and MAP, and our own proprietary analysis tool, Compass.
On Monday we examined election activity observed online up to and including June 8. We noted new participants continue to join the election chatter, though the number of highly engaged participants has long ago reached its apparent peak. Yesterday we shared a breakdown of activity and sentiment associated with the leaders between June 2-8, in which we noted a shift in voting intention toward the Liberals despite an increase in criticism of Kathleen Wynne. Today we look at issues and how they’re playing out online.
This week’s analysis looks at June 2 through 8, inclusive.
Most mentioned issues
Based on a count of online mentions, employment continues to dominate the issues chatter. This was helped in part by the debate. Energy and education hold down the number two and three spots. An aggregation of issues associated with the McGuinty legacy (gas plants, Ornge, hard drives) and general accountability discussion takes the number four position, and economy rounds out the top five.
Neither McGuinty’s legacy nor general accountability made the top five list individually in previous weeks. We merged them this week to more closely align our analysis with that of Abacus Data.
The following table identifies the top issues on Twitter (election to-date) based on the number of tweets issued and the number of unique tweeters. In both columns, the respective numbers appear in parentheses. The issues that appear on this list all have more than 1,000 participants.
Notice that employment (the number one issue) has more than twice the number of participants as education (the number two issue). Mentions of McGuinty and his legacy of scandals have picked up this period due to a combination of factors including increased criticism from Tim Hudak and Andrea Horwath, the debate and new activity by the OPP on these files.
by number of tweets
by number of participants
|Issue #1||Employment (64,898)||Employment (7,107)|
|Issue #2||Education (26,699)||Education (3,038)|
|Issue #3||Energy (26,670)||Energy (2,307)|
|Issue #4||McGuinty/Accountability (22,928)||McGuinty-Accountability (2,060)|
|Issue #5||Taxes (19,162)||Economy (1,731)|
|Issue #6||Economy (17,616)||Healthcare (1,706)|
|Issue #7||Healthcare (14,374)||Taxes (1,663)|
|Issue #8||Public transportation (12,633)||Public transportation (1,273)|
Most mentioned issues by leader
The most mentioned issues associated with each leader shows how the discussions about some leaders is more likely to be associated with a particular issue. Mike Schreiner, for example, has environment in his top five during this evaluation period, while the others do not. Tim Hudak’s top issue was employment, which was the number two issue for both Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath. Economy is third on Kathleen Wynne’s list while education holds that spot on Andrea Horwath’s.